2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 85-89 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in Canada

1. 927 of 24,576 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.77% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 71% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 540 of 27,061 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 387 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,485 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 664 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 24,446 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 71% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 927 of 216,618 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

927 ÷ 216,618 = 0.00428 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,669 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,872,106 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,669 ÷ 1,872,106 = 0.00249 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

216,618 X 0.00249 = 540 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

927 – 540 = 387

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

927 ÷ 540 = 1.7090

This reveals 387 lives lost and is 170.90% of what we expected (an increase of 71%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,731 ÷ 1,384,755 = 0.00269 (5-yr CDR)

216,618(2022 pop) X 0.00269 = 584 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

927 – 584 = 343 or 343 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

927 ÷ 584 = 1.5824 or an increase of 58%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,601,373 X 0.00249 = 3,994 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4658 – 3,994 = 664 or 664 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,658 ÷ 3,994 = 1.1617 or an increase of 16%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.