2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 90+ | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Canada

1. 1,154 of 26,077 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.43% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 55% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 743 of 25,470 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 411 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 607 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 606 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7,526 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 55% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,154 of 109,604 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

1,154 ÷ 109,604 = 0.01053 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,956 deaths from Unknown Causes among 730,725 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,956 ÷ 730,725 = 0.00678 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

109,604 X 0.00678 = 743 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,154 – 743 = 411

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,154 ÷ 743 = 1.5501

This reveals 411 lives lost and is 155.01% of what we expected (an increase of 55%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,564 ÷ 644,093 = 0.00709 (5-yr CDR)

109,604(2022 pop) X 0.00709 = 777 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,154 – 777 = 377 or 377 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,154 ÷ 777 = 1.4838 or an increase of 48%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

753,697 X 0.00678 = 5,112 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5718 – 5,112 = 606 or 606 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,718 ÷ 5,112 = 1.1169 or an increase of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.