2022 Deaths – All Causes – Girls – Ages 5-9 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for girls aged 5-9 in Manitoba

1. 7 of 7 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.86% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5 of 5 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many girls aged 5-9 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7 of 44,027 girls aged 5-9 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

7 ÷ 44,027 = 0.00016 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 59 deaths from All Causes among 523,890 girls aged 5-9 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

59 ÷ 523,890 = 0.00011 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

44,027 X 0.00011 = 5 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7 – 5 = 2

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7 ÷ 5 = 1.2966

This reveals 2 lives lost and is 129.66% of what we expected (an increase of 30%) in deaths from All Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

33 ÷ 297,880 = 0.00011 (5-yr CDR)

44,027(2022 pop) X 0.00011 = 5 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7 – 5 = 2 or 2 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7 ÷ 5 = 1.3164 or an increase of 32%

for deaths from All Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

341,907 X 0.00011 = 39 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

40 – 39 = 1 or 1 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

40 ÷ 39 = 0.9541 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.