2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 60-64 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 60-64 in Manitoba

1. 302 of 302 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 329 of 329 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 27 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 132 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 302 of 43,363 women aged 60-64 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

302 ÷ 43,363 = 0.00696 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,165 deaths from All Causes among 417,683 women aged 60-64 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,165 ÷ 417,683 = 0.00758 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

43,363 X 0.00758 = 329 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

302 – 329 = -27

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

302 ÷ 329 = 0.9179

This reveals 27 lives saved and is 91.79% of what we expected (a decrease of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,039 ÷ 283,060 = 0.00720 (5-yr CDR)

43,363(2022 pop) X 0.00720 = 312 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

302 – 312 = -10 or 10 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

302 ÷ 312 = 0.9655 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

326,423 X 0.00758 = 2,473 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2341 – 2,473 = -132 or 132 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,341 ÷ 2,473 = 0.9452 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.