2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 65-69 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in Manitoba

1. 393 of 393 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 452 of 452 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 59 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 418 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 393 of 38,235 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

393 ÷ 38,235 = 0.01028 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,958 deaths from All Causes among 335,109 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,958 ÷ 335,109 = 0.01181 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

38,235 X 0.01181 = 452 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

393 – 452 = -59

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

393 ÷ 452 = 0.8695

This reveals 59 lives saved and is 86.95% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,487 ÷ 240,981 = 0.01032 (5-yr CDR)

38,235(2022 pop) X 0.01032 = 395 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

393 – 395 = -2 or 2 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

393 ÷ 395 = 0.9950 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

279,216 X 0.01181 = 3,298 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2880 – 3,298 = -418 or 418 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,880 ÷ 3,298 = 0.8726 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.