2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in New Brunswick

1. 1,576 of 1,576 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,895 of 1,895 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 319 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,129 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,576 of 7,601 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

1,576 ÷ 7,601 = 0.20734 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,379 deaths from All Causes among 73,727 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,379 ÷ 73,727 = 0.24928 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

7,601 X 0.24928 = 1,895 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,576 – 1,895 = -319

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,576 ÷ 1,895 = 0.8317

This reveals 319 lives saved and is 83.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,568 ÷ 49,653 = 0.19270 (5-yr CDR)

7,601(2022 pop) X 0.19270 = 1,465 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,576 – 1,465 = 111 or 111 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,576 ÷ 1,465 = 1.0759 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

57,254 X 0.24928 = 14,273 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11144 – 14,273 = -3,129 or 3,129 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,144 ÷ 14,273 = 0.7808 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.