2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 85-89 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in New Brunswick

1. 22 of 603 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.65% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 86% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 12 of 623 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 10 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 20 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 21 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 345 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New Brunswick’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 86% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 22 of 4,862 elderly men aged 85-89 living in New Brunswick died from Unknown Causes.

22 ÷ 4,862 = 0.00452 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 109 deaths from Unknown Causes among 44,884 elderly men aged 85-89 living in New Brunswick in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

109 ÷ 44,884 = 0.00243 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

4,862 X 0.00243 = 12 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

22 – 12 = 10

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

22 ÷ 12 = 1.8556

This reveals 10 lives lost and is 185.56% of what we expected (an increase of 86%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

84 ÷ 30,152 = 0.00279 (5-yr CDR)

4,862(2022 pop) X 0.00279 = 14 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

22 – 14 = 8 or 8 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

22 ÷ 14 = 1.6184 or an increase of 62%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

35,014 X 0.00243 = 85 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

106 – 85 = 21 or 21 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

106 ÷ 85 = 1.2415 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.