2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 26,462 of 26,462 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 23,296 of 23,296 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3,166 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,430 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 26,462 of 139,349 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario died from All Causes.

26,462 ÷ 139,349 = 0.18990 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 163,881 deaths from All Causes among 980,269 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

163,881 ÷ 980,269 = 0.16718 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

139,349 X 0.16718 = 23,296 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

26,462 – 23,296 = 3,166

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

26,462 ÷ 23,296 = 1.1358

This reveals 3,166 lives lost and is 113.58% of what we expected (an increase of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

147,785 ÷ 864,464 = 0.17096 (5-yr CDR)

139,349(2022 pop) X 0.17096 = 23,822 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26,462 – 23,822 = 2,640 or 2,640 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

26,462 ÷ 23,822 = 1.1107 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,003,813 X 0.16718 = 167,817 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

174247 – 167,817 = 6,430 or 6,430 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

174,247 ÷ 167,817 = 1.0383 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.