2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – All Ages | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for individuals of all ages in Arizona

1. 74,079 of 74,079 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 33% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 55,610 of 55,610 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 18,469 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 86,335 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 33% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many individuals of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 74,079 of 7,209,837 individuals of all ages living in Arizona died from All Causes.

74,079 ÷ 7,209,837 = 0.01027 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 686,580 deaths from All Causes among 89,015,497 individuals of all ages living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

686,580 ÷ 89,015,497 = 0.00771 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

7,209,837 X 0.00771 = 55,610 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

74,079 – 55,610 = 18,469

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

74,079 ÷ 55,610 = 1.3304

This reveals 18,469 lives lost and is 133.04% of what we expected (an increase of 33%) in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

445,383 ÷ 48,945,335 = 0.00910 (5-yr CDR)

7,209,837(2022 pop) X 0.00910 = 65,607 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

74,079 – 65,607 = 8,472 or 8,472 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

74,079 ÷ 65,607 = 1.1279 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

56,155,172 X 0.00771 = 433,127 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

519462 – 433,127 = 86,335 or 86,335 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

519,462 ÷ 433,127 = 1.1978 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.