2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Arizona

1. 1,378 of 1,378 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,134 of 1,134 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 244 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,245 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,378 of 217,106 women aged 55-59 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

1,378 ÷ 217,106 = 0.00635 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,916 deaths from All Causes among 2,664,341 women aged 55-59 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,916 ÷ 2,664,341 = 0.00522 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

217,106 X 0.00522 = 1,134 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,378 – 1,134 = 244

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,378 ÷ 1,134 = 1.2129

This reveals 244 lives lost and is 121.29% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,268 ÷ 1,582,853 = 0.00586 (5-yr CDR)

217,106(2022 pop) X 0.00586 = 1,271 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,378 – 1,271 = 107 or 107 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,378 ÷ 1,271 = 1.0822 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,799,959 X 0.00522 = 9,401 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10646 – 9,401 = 1,245 or 1,245 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,646 ÷ 9,401 = 1.1302 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.