2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Arizona

1. 4,346 of 4,346 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,464 of 4,464 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 118 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,100 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,346 of 149,672 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

4,346 ÷ 149,672 = 0.02904 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 38,590 deaths from All Causes among 1,293,936 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

38,590 ÷ 1,293,936 = 0.02982 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

149,672 X 0.02982 = 4,464 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,346 – 4,464 = -118

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,346 ÷ 4,464 = 0.9733

This reveals 118 lives saved and is 97.33% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

24,217 ÷ 878,485 = 0.02757 (5-yr CDR)

149,672(2022 pop) X 0.02757 = 4,126 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,346 – 4,126 = 220 or 220 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,346 ÷ 4,126 = 1.0529 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,028,157 X 0.02982 = 30,663 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

28563 – 30,663 = -2,100 or 2,100 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

28,563 ÷ 30,663 = 0.9312 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.