2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80+ | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Arizona

1. 15,897 of 15,897 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 0% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,944 of 15,944 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 47 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,847 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 0% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 15,897 of 93,217 elderly women aged 80+ living in Arizona died from All Causes.

15,897 ÷ 93,217 = 0.17054 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 164,567 deaths from All Causes among 962,124 elderly women aged 80+ living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

164,567 ÷ 962,124 = 0.17105 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

93,217 X 0.17105 = 15,944 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

15,897 – 15,944 = -47

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

15,897 ÷ 15,944 = 0.9970

This reveals 47 lives saved and is 99.70% of what we expected (a decrease of 0%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

98,648 ÷ 565,663 = 0.17439 (5-yr CDR)

93,217(2022 pop) X 0.17439 = 16,256 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15,897 – 16,256 = -359 or 359 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

15,897 ÷ 16,256 = 0.9778 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

658,880 X 0.17105 = 112,698 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

114545 – 112,698 = 1,847 or 1,847 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

114,545 ÷ 112,698 = 1.0163 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.