2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Arizona

1. 828 of 828 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 79% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 459 of 459 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 369 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,633 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 79% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 828 of 264,564 men aged 30-34 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

828 ÷ 264,564 = 0.00313 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,420 deaths from All Causes among 3,122,385 men aged 30-34 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,420 ÷ 3,122,385 = 0.00174 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

264,564 X 0.00174 = 459 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

828 – 459 = 369

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

828 ÷ 459 = 1.7926

This reveals 369 lives lost and is 179.26% of what we expected (an increase of 79%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,223 ÷ 1,704,425 = 0.00248 (5-yr CDR)

264,564(2022 pop) X 0.00248 = 656 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

828 – 656 = 172 or 172 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

828 ÷ 656 = 1.2581 or an increase of 26%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,968,989 X 0.00174 = 3,418 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5051 – 3,418 = 1,633 or 1,633 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,051 ÷ 3,418 = 1.4694 or an increase of 47%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.