2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Arizona

1. 958 of 958 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 79% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 532 of 532 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 426 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,407 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 79% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 958 of 244,551 men aged 35-39 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

958 ÷ 244,551 = 0.00392 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,675 deaths from All Causes among 3,071,069 men aged 35-39 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,675 ÷ 3,071,069 = 0.00217 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

244,551 X 0.00217 = 532 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

958 – 532 = 426

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

958 ÷ 532 = 1.7941

This reveals 426 lives lost and is 179.41% of what we expected (an increase of 79%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,490 ÷ 1,614,666 = 0.00278 (5-yr CDR)

244,551(2022 pop) X 0.00278 = 680 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

958 – 680 = 278 or 278 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

958 ÷ 680 = 1.4037 or an increase of 40%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,859,217 X 0.00217 = 4,041 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5448 – 4,041 = 1,407 or 1,407 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,448 ÷ 4,041 = 1.3420 or an increase of 34%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.