2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Arizona

1. 1,177 of 1,177 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 964 of 964 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 213 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 407 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,177 of 211,313 men aged 45-49 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

1,177 ÷ 211,313 = 0.00557 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,471 deaths from All Causes among 2,951,921 men aged 45-49 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,471 ÷ 2,951,921 = 0.00456 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

211,313 X 0.00456 = 964 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,177 – 964 = 213

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,177 ÷ 964 = 1.2179

This reveals 213 lives lost and is 121.79% of what we expected (an increase of 22%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,976 ÷ 1,485,980 = 0.00469 (5-yr CDR)

211,313(2022 pop) X 0.00469 = 992 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,177 – 992 = 185 or 185 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,177 ÷ 992 = 1.1839 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,697,293 X 0.00456 = 7,746 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8153 – 7,746 = 407 or 407 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,153 ÷ 7,746 = 1.0503 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.