2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Arizona

1. 3,228 of 3,228 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,727 of 2,727 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 501 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,890 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,228 of 214,713 men aged 60-64 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

3,228 ÷ 214,713 = 0.01503 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 26,952 deaths from All Causes among 2,122,024 men aged 60-64 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

26,952 ÷ 2,122,024 = 0.01270 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

214,713 X 0.01270 = 2,727 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,228 – 2,727 = 501

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,228 ÷ 2,727 = 1.1827

This reveals 501 lives lost and is 118.27% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

20,047 ÷ 1,390,286 = 0.01442 (5-yr CDR)

214,713(2022 pop) X 0.01442 = 3,096 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,228 – 3,096 = 132 or 132 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,228 ÷ 3,096 = 1.0419 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,604,999 X 0.01270 = 20,385 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23275 – 20,385 = 2,890 or 2,890 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

23,275 ÷ 20,385 = 1.1409 or an increase of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.