2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Arizona

1. 3,921 of 3,921 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,452 of 3,452 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 469 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,977 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,921 of 195,346 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

3,921 ÷ 195,346 = 0.02007 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,901 deaths from All Causes among 1,805,027 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,901 ÷ 1,805,027 = 0.01767 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

195,346 X 0.01767 = 3,452 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,921 – 3,452 = 469

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,921 ÷ 3,452 = 1.1351

This reveals 469 lives lost and is 113.51% of what we expected (an increase of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

24,210 ÷ 1,284,507 = 0.01885 (5-yr CDR)

195,346(2022 pop) X 0.01885 = 3,682 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,921 – 3,682 = 239 or 239 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,921 ÷ 3,682 = 1.0644 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,479,853 X 0.01767 = 26,154 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

28131 – 26,154 = 1,977 or 1,977 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

28,131 ÷ 26,154 = 1.0750 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.