2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | Hawaii, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Hawaii

1. 536 of 536 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 577 of 577 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 41 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 423 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 536 of 39,635 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii died from All Causes.

536 ÷ 39,635 = 0.01352 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,040 deaths from All Causes among 346,256 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,040 ÷ 346,256 = 0.01456 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

39,635 X 0.01456 = 577 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

536 – 577 = -41

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

536 ÷ 577 = 0.9284

This reveals 41 lives saved and is 92.84% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,098 ÷ 239,100 = 0.01296 (5-yr CDR)

39,635(2022 pop) X 0.01296 = 514 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

536 – 514 = 22 or 22 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

536 ÷ 514 = 1.0429 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

278,735 X 0.01456 = 4,057 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3634 – 4,057 = -423 or 423 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,634 ÷ 4,057 = 0.8951 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.