2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Louisiana, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Louisiana

1. 951 of 951 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 746 of 746 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 205 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 440 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 951 of 127,203 men aged 45-49 living in Louisiana died from All Causes.

951 ÷ 127,203 = 0.00748 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,905 deaths from All Causes among 2,369,921 men aged 45-49 living in Louisiana in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,905 ÷ 2,369,921 = 0.00587 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

127,203 X 0.00587 = 746 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

951 – 746 = 205

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

951 ÷ 746 = 1.2721

This reveals 205 lives lost and is 127.21% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,750 ÷ 939,849 = 0.00612 (5-yr CDR)

127,203(2022 pop) X 0.00612 = 778 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

951 – 778 = 173 or 173 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

951 ÷ 778 = 1.2200 or an increase of 22%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,067,052 X 0.00587 = 6,261 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6701 – 6,261 = 440 or 440 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,701 ÷ 6,261 = 1.0685 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Louisiana in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.