2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 45-49 | Maryland, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Maryland

1. 741 of 1,229 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 60.29% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 698 of 1,242 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 43 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 13 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 229 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 391 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Maryland’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 741 of 367,177 people aged 45-49 living in Maryland died from Unknown Causes.

741 ÷ 367,177 = 0.00202 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,573 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,614,201 people aged 45-49 living in Maryland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,573 ÷ 6,614,201 = 0.00190 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

367,177 X 0.00190 = 698 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

741 – 698 = 43

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

741 ÷ 698 = 1.0561

This reveals 43 lives lost and is 105.61% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,987 ÷ 2,766,762 = 0.00180 (5-yr CDR)

367,177(2022 pop) X 0.00180 = 662 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

741 – 662 = 79 or 79 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

741 ÷ 662 = 1.1135 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,133,939 X 0.00190 = 5,957 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5728 – 5,957 = -229 or 229 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,728 ÷ 5,957 = 0.9565 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Maryland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.