2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 80+ | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Massachusetts

1. 30,325 of 30,325 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 29,241 of 29,241 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,084 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 24,223 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 30,325 of 142,668 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts died from All Causes.

30,325 ÷ 142,668 = 0.21256 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 421,519 deaths from All Causes among 2,056,591 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

421,519 ÷ 2,056,591 = 0.20496 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

142,668 X 0.20496 = 29,241 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

30,325 – 29,241 = 1,084

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

30,325 ÷ 29,241 = 1.0370

This reveals 1,084 lives lost and is 103.70% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

212,968 ÷ 926,175 = 0.22994 (5-yr CDR)

142,668(2022 pop) X 0.22994 = 32,806 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30,325 – 32,806 = -2,481 or 2,481 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

30,325 ÷ 32,806 = 0.9243 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,068,843 X 0.20496 = 219,070 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

243293 – 219,070 = 24,223 or 24,223 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

243,293 ÷ 219,070 = 1.1105 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.