2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 50-54 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in Massachusetts

1. 374 of 684 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 54.68% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 358 of 679 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 16 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 5 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 52 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 197 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 374 of 229,981 women aged 50-54 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

374 ÷ 229,981 = 0.00163 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,612 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,606,599 women aged 50-54 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,612 ÷ 3,606,599 = 0.00156 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

229,981 X 0.00156 = 358 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

374 – 358 = 16

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

374 ÷ 358 = 1.0384

This reveals 16 lives lost and is 103.84% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,620 ÷ 1,727,636 = 0.00152 (5-yr CDR)

229,981(2022 pop) X 0.00152 = 349 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

374 – 349 = 25 or 25 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

374 ÷ 349 = 1.0653 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,957,617 X 0.00156 = 3,046 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2994 – 3,046 = -52 or 52 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,994 ÷ 3,046 = 0.9766 or a decrease of 2%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.