2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 70-74 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Massachusetts

1. 798 of 2,801 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 28.49% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 910 of 3,329 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 112 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 528 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 737 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,523 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 798 of 175,972 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

798 ÷ 175,972 = 0.00453 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,639 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,670,216 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,639 ÷ 1,670,216 = 0.00517 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

175,972 X 0.00517 = 910 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

798 – 910 = -112

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

798 ÷ 910 = 0.8750

This reveals 112 lives saved and is 87.50% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,971 ÷ 1,081,926 = 0.00459 (5-yr CDR)

175,972(2022 pop) X 0.00459 = 809 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

798 – 809 = -11 or 11 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

798 ÷ 809 = 0.9848 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,257,898 X 0.00517 = 6,506 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5769 – 6,506 = -737 or 737 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,769 ÷ 6,506 = 0.8850 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.