2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 90+ | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Alberta

1. 2,300 of 2,300 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,171 of 2,171 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 129 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 553 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,300 of 9,351 elderly men aged 90+ living in Alberta died from All Causes.

2,300 ÷ 9,351 = 0.24596 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,746 deaths from All Causes among 59,195 elderly men aged 90+ living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,746 ÷ 59,195 = 0.23222 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

9,351 X 0.23222 = 2,171 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,300 – 2,171 = 129

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,300 ÷ 2,171 = 1.0592

This reveals 129 lives lost and is 105.92% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,346 ÷ 56,100 = 0.22007 (5-yr CDR)

9,351(2022 pop) X 0.22007 = 2,058 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,300 – 2,058 = 242 or 242 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,300 ÷ 2,058 = 1.1176 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

65,451 X 0.23222 = 15,199 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14646 – 15,199 = -553 or 553 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,646 ÷ 15,199 = 0.9636 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.