2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 30-34 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Alberta

1. 523 of 523 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 101% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 256 of 256 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 267 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,134 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 101% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 523 of 353,839 people aged 30-34 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

523 ÷ 353,839 = 0.00148 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,779 deaths from All Causes among 3,834,286 people aged 30-34 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,779 ÷ 3,834,286 = 0.00072 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

353,839 X 0.00072 = 256 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

523 – 256 = 267

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

523 ÷ 256 = 2.0116

This reveals 267 lives lost and is 201.16% of what we expected (an increase of 101%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,665 ÷ 2,480,805 = 0.00107 (5-yr CDR)

353,839(2022 pop) X 0.00107 = 380 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

523 – 380 = 143 or 143 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

523 ÷ 380 = 1.3632 or an increase of 36%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,834,644 X 0.00072 = 2,054 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3188 – 2,054 = 1,134 or 1,134 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,188 ÷ 2,054 = 1.5306 or an increase of 53%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.