2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in British Columbia

1. 1,870 of 1,870 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,240 of 2,240 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 370 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,804 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,870 of 145,626 elderly women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

1,870 ÷ 145,626 = 0.01284 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,906 deaths from All Causes among 1,164,223 elderly women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,906 ÷ 1,164,223 = 0.01538 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

145,626 X 0.01538 = 2,240 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,870 – 2,240 = -370

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,870 ÷ 2,240 = 0.8344

This reveals 370 lives saved and is 83.44% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,542 ÷ 843,709 = 0.01249 (5-yr CDR)

145,626(2022 pop) X 0.01249 = 1,820 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,870 – 1,820 = 50 or 50 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,870 ÷ 1,820 = 1.0269 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

989,335 X 0.01538 = 15,216 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12412 – 15,216 = -2,804 or 2,804 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,412 ÷ 15,216 = 0.8152 or a decrease of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.