2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in British Columbia

1. 4,609 of 4,609 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,408 of 5,408 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 799 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,737 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,609 of 278,298 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

4,609 ÷ 278,298 = 0.01656 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 43,944 deaths from All Causes among 2,261,584 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

43,944 ÷ 2,261,584 = 0.01943 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

278,298 X 0.01943 = 5,408 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,609 – 5,408 = -799

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,609 ÷ 5,408 = 0.8519

This reveals 799 lives saved and is 85.19% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

25,768 ÷ 1,631,755 = 0.01579 (5-yr CDR)

278,298(2022 pop) X 0.01579 = 4,395 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,609 – 4,395 = 214 or 214 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,609 ÷ 4,395 = 1.0481 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,910,053 X 0.01943 = 37,114 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30377 – 37,114 = -6,737 or 6,737 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

30,377 ÷ 37,114 = 0.8181 or a decrease of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.