2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Manitoba

1. 181 of 181 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 190 of 190 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 9 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 181 of 39,955 men aged 50-54 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

181 ÷ 39,955 = 0.00453 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,845 deaths from All Causes among 598,933 men aged 50-54 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,845 ÷ 598,933 = 0.00475 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

39,955 X 0.00475 = 190 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

181 – 190 = -9

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

181 ÷ 190 = 0.9517

This reveals 9 lives saved and is 95.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,420 ÷ 296,293 = 0.00479 (5-yr CDR)

39,955(2022 pop) X 0.00479 = 191 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

181 – 191 = -10 or 10 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

181 ÷ 191 = 0.9433 or a decrease of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

336,248 X 0.00475 = 1,597 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1601 – 1,597 = 4 or 4 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,601 ÷ 1,597 = 1.0003 or an increase of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.