2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Quebec

1. 3,741 of 3,741 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,703 of 4,703 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 962 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,922 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,741 of 273,417 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

3,741 ÷ 273,417 = 0.01368 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 43,221 deaths from All Causes among 2,512,778 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

43,221 ÷ 2,512,778 = 0.01720 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

273,417 X 0.01720 = 4,703 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,741 – 4,703 = -962

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,741 ÷ 4,703 = 0.7950

This reveals 962 lives saved and is 79.50% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

23,751 ÷ 1,727,333 = 0.01375 (5-yr CDR)

273,417(2022 pop) X 0.01375 = 3,760 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,741 – 3,760 = -19 or 19 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,741 ÷ 3,760 = 0.9944 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,000,750 X 0.01720 = 34,414 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27492 – 34,414 = -6,922 or 6,922 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

27,492 ÷ 34,414 = 0.7984 or a decrease of 20%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.