2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 45-49 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in Quebec

1. 315 of 315 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 35% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 484 of 484 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 169 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,131 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 35% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 315 of 265,705 women aged 45-49 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

315 ÷ 265,705 = 0.00119 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,452 deaths from All Causes among 4,636,067 women aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,452 ÷ 4,636,067 = 0.00182 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

265,705 X 0.00182 = 484 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

315 – 484 = -169

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

315 ÷ 484 = 0.6467

This reveals 169 lives saved and is 64.67% of what we expected (a decrease of 35%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,347 ÷ 1,814,694 = 0.00129 (5-yr CDR)

265,705(2022 pop) X 0.00129 = 344 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

315 – 344 = -29 or 29 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

315 ÷ 344 = 0.9096 or a decrease of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,080,399 X 0.00182 = 3,793 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2662 – 3,793 = -1,131 or 1,131 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,662 ÷ 3,793 = 0.6980 or a decrease of 30%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.