2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 50-54 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in Quebec

1. 547 of 547 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 24% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 718 of 718 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 171 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,361 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 24% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 547 of 256,529 women aged 50-54 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

547 ÷ 256,529 = 0.00213 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,536 deaths from All Causes among 4,477,319 women aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,536 ÷ 4,477,319 = 0.00280 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

256,529 X 0.00280 = 718 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

547 – 718 = -171

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

547 ÷ 718 = 0.7589

This reveals 171 lives saved and is 75.89% of what we expected (a decrease of 24%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,476 ÷ 2,023,576 = 0.00221 (5-yr CDR)

256,529(2022 pop) X 0.00221 = 567 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

547 – 567 = -20 or 20 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

547 ÷ 567 = 0.9597 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,280,105 X 0.00280 = 6,384 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5023 – 6,384 = -1,361 or 1,361 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,023 ÷ 6,384 = 0.7840 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.