2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 15-19 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged boys aged 15-19 in Nova Scotia

1. 9 of 9 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.89% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 47% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 17 of 17 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 8 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 20 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 47% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged boys aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9 of 25,878 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Nova Scotia died from All Causes.

9 ÷ 25,878 = 0.00035 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 279 deaths from All Causes among 432,471 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Nova Scotia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

279 ÷ 432,471 = 0.00065 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

25,878 X 0.00065 = 17 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9 – 17 = -8

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9 ÷ 17 = 0.5309

This reveals 8 lives saved and is 53.09% of what we expected (a decrease of 47%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

107 ÷ 184,481 = 0.00058 (5-yr CDR)

25,878(2022 pop) X 0.00058 = 15 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9 – 15 = -6 or 6 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9 ÷ 15 = 0.5895 or a decrease of 41%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

210,359 X 0.00065 = 136 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

116 – 136 = -20 or 20 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

116 ÷ 136 = 0.8417 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.