2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in United States

1. 39,609 of 39,609 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 31% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 30,027 of 30,027 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 9,582 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 29,534 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 31% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 39,609 of 10,817,889 men aged 40-44 living in United States died from All Causes.

39,609 ÷ 10,817,889 = 0.00366 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 451,322 deaths from All Causes among 162,597,027 men aged 40-44 living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

451,322 ÷ 162,597,027 = 0.00278 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

10,817,889 X 0.00278 = 30,027 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

39,609 – 30,027 = 9,582

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

39,609 ÷ 30,027 = 1.3144

This reveals 9,582 lives lost and is 131.44% of what we expected (an increase of 31%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

214,158 ÷ 69,966,198 = 0.00306 (5-yr CDR)

10,817,889(2022 pop) X 0.00306 = 33,112 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

39,609 – 33,112 = 6,497 or 6,497 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

39,609 ÷ 33,112 = 1.1923 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

80,784,087 X 0.00278 = 224,233 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

253767 – 224,233 = 29,534 or 29,534 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

253,767 ÷ 224,233 = 1.1276 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.