2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Alabama

1. 620 of 620 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 63% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 380 of 380 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 240 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 991 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 63% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 620 of 165,873 men aged 30-34 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

620 ÷ 165,873 = 0.00374 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,056 deaths from All Causes among 2,209,016 men aged 30-34 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,056 ÷ 2,209,016 = 0.00229 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

165,873 X 0.00229 = 380 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

620 – 380 = 240

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

620 ÷ 380 = 1.6260

This reveals 240 lives lost and is 162.60% of what we expected (an increase of 63%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,190 ÷ 1,065,599 = 0.00299 (5-yr CDR)

165,873(2022 pop) X 0.00299 = 497 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

620 – 497 = 123 or 123 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

620 ÷ 497 = 1.2444 or an increase of 24%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,231,472 X 0.00229 = 2,819 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3810 – 2,819 = 991 or 991 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,810 ÷ 2,819 = 1.3459 or an increase of 35%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.