2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Alabama

1. 3,734 of 3,734 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,580 of 3,580 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 154 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 699 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,734 of 139,305 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

3,734 ÷ 139,305 = 0.02680 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 35,336 deaths from All Causes among 1,374,827 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

35,336 ÷ 1,374,827 = 0.02570 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

139,305 X 0.02570 = 3,580 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,734 – 3,580 = 154

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,734 ÷ 3,580 = 1.0425

This reveals 154 lives lost and is 104.25% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

23,522 ÷ 893,945 = 0.02631 (5-yr CDR)

139,305(2022 pop) X 0.02631 = 3,665 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,734 – 3,665 = 69 or 69 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,734 ÷ 3,665 = 1.0183 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,033,250 X 0.02570 = 26,557 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27256 – 26,557 = 699 or 699 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

27,256 ÷ 26,557 = 1.0259 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.