2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Alabama

1. 870 of 870 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 48% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 583 of 583 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 287 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,366 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 48% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 870 of 336,797 people aged 30-34 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

870 ÷ 336,797 = 0.00258 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,771 deaths from All Causes among 4,488,641 people aged 30-34 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,771 ÷ 4,488,641 = 0.00173 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

336,797 X 0.00173 = 583 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

870 – 583 = 287

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

870 ÷ 583 = 1.4835

This reveals 287 lives lost and is 148.35% of what we expected (an increase of 48%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,850 ÷ 2,178,213 = 0.00223 (5-yr CDR)

336,797(2022 pop) X 0.00223 = 750 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

870 – 750 = 120 or 120 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

870 ÷ 750 = 1.1550 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,515,010 X 0.00173 = 4,354 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5720 – 4,354 = 1,366 or 1,366 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,720 ÷ 4,354 = 1.3061 or an increase of 31%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.