2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Alabama

1. 985 of 985 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 39% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 703 of 703 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 282 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,536 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 39% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 985 of 311,105 people aged 35-39 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

985 ÷ 311,105 = 0.00317 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 10,499 deaths from All Causes among 4,643,118 people aged 35-39 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

10,499 ÷ 4,643,118 = 0.00226 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

311,105 X 0.00226 = 703 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

985 – 703 = 282

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

985 ÷ 703 = 1.3940

This reveals 282 lives lost and is 139.40% of what we expected (an increase of 39%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,057 ÷ 2,123,963 = 0.00285 (5-yr CDR)

311,105(2022 pop) X 0.00285 = 887 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

985 – 887 = 98 or 98 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

985 ÷ 887 = 1.1064 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,435,068 X 0.00226 = 5,506 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7042 – 5,506 = 1,536 or 1,536 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,042 ÷ 5,506 = 1.2733 or an increase of 27%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.