2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Arkansas

1. 348 of 348 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 35% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 256 of 256 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 92 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 482 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 35% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 348 of 95,942 men aged 35-39 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

348 ÷ 95,942 = 0.00363 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,679 deaths from All Causes among 1,377,001 men aged 35-39 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,679 ÷ 1,377,001 = 0.00267 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

95,942 X 0.00267 = 256 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

348 – 256 = 92

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

348 ÷ 256 = 1.3525

This reveals 92 lives lost and is 135.25% of what we expected (an increase of 35%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,160 ÷ 662,235 = 0.00326 (5-yr CDR)

95,942(2022 pop) X 0.00326 = 313 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

348 – 313 = 35 or 35 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

348 ÷ 313 = 1.1087 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

758,177 X 0.00267 = 2,026 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2508 – 2,026 = 482 or 482 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,508 ÷ 2,026 = 1.2335 or an increase of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.