2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – All Ages | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for individuals of all ages in Arkansas

1. 37,854 of 37,854 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 30,885 of 30,885 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 6,969 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 33,780 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many individuals of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 37,854 of 2,987,320 individuals of all ages living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

37,854 ÷ 2,987,320 = 0.01267 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 431,655 deaths from All Causes among 41,751,902 individuals of all ages living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

431,655 ÷ 41,751,902 = 0.01034 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,987,320 X 0.01034 = 30,885 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

37,854 – 30,885 = 6,969

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

37,854 ÷ 30,885 = 1.2245

This reveals 6,969 lives lost and is 122.45% of what we expected (an increase of 22%) in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

239,350 ÷ 20,557,894 = 0.01164 (5-yr CDR)

2,987,320(2022 pop) X 0.01164 = 34,781 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

37,854 – 34,781 = 3,073 or 3,073 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

37,854 ÷ 34,781 = 1.0874 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

23,545,214 X 0.01034 = 243,424 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

277204 – 243,424 = 33,780 or 33,780 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

277,204 ÷ 243,424 = 1.1377 or an increase of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.