2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 60-64 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 60-64 in Arkansas

1. 1,274 of 1,274 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,020 of 1,020 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 254 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,160 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,274 of 98,362 women aged 60-64 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

1,274 ÷ 98,362 = 0.01295 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,102 deaths from All Causes among 1,167,487 women aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,102 ÷ 1,167,487 = 0.01037 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

98,362 X 0.01037 = 1,020 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,274 – 1,020 = 254

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,274 ÷ 1,020 = 1.2483

This reveals 254 lives lost and is 124.83% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,946 ÷ 679,205 = 0.01170 (5-yr CDR)

98,362(2022 pop) X 0.01170 = 1,151 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,274 – 1,151 = 123 or 123 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,274 ÷ 1,151 = 1.1062 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

777,567 X 0.01037 = 8,060 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9220 – 8,060 = 1,160 or 1,160 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,220 ÷ 8,060 = 1.1428 or an increase of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.