2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 20-24 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 20-24 in California

1. 1,660 of 1,660 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,540 of 1,540 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 120 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 671 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,660 of 1,363,295 men aged 20-24 living in California died from All Causes.

1,660 ÷ 1,363,295 = 0.00122 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 23,812 deaths from All Causes among 21,076,813 men aged 20-24 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

23,812 ÷ 21,076,813 = 0.00113 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,363,295 X 0.00113 = 1,540 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,660 – 1,540 = 120

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,660 ÷ 1,540 = 1.0683

This reveals 120 lives lost and is 106.83% of what we expected (an increase of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,592 ÷ 9,772,959 = 0.00119 (5-yr CDR)

1,363,295(2022 pop) X 0.00119 = 1,617 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,660 – 1,617 = 43 or 43 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,660 ÷ 1,617 = 1.0180 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,136,254 X 0.00113 = 12,581 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13252 – 12,581 = 671 or 671 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,252 ÷ 12,581 = 1.0441 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.