2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 20-24 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 20-24 in California

1. 573 of 573 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 459 of 459 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 114 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 445 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 573 of 1,288,039 women aged 20-24 living in California died from All Causes.

573 ÷ 1,288,039 = 0.00044 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,909 deaths from All Causes among 19,384,309 women aged 20-24 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,909 ÷ 19,384,309 = 0.00036 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,288,039 X 0.00036 = 459 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

573 – 459 = 114

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

573 ÷ 459 = 1.2141

This reveals 114 lives lost and is 121.41% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,605 ÷ 9,186,809 = 0.00039 (5-yr CDR)

1,288,039(2022 pop) X 0.00039 = 505 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

573 – 505 = 68 or 68 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

573 ÷ 505 = 1.1055 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,474,848 X 0.00036 = 3,733 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4178 – 3,733 = 445 or 445 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,178 ÷ 3,733 = 1.0885 or an increase of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 20-24 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.