2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 45-49 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in California

1. 2,497 of 2,497 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,535 of 2,535 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 38 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,005 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,497 of 1,185,434 women aged 45-49 living in California died from All Causes.

2,497 ÷ 1,185,434 = 0.00211 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 41,629 deaths from All Causes among 19,470,231 women aged 45-49 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

41,629 ÷ 19,470,231 = 0.00214 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,185,434 X 0.00214 = 2,535 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,497 – 2,535 = -38

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,497 ÷ 2,535 = 0.9806

This reveals 38 lives saved and is 98.06% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17,069 ÷ 8,903,634 = 0.00192 (5-yr CDR)

1,185,434(2022 pop) X 0.00192 = 2,273 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,497 – 2,273 = 224 or 224 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,497 ÷ 2,273 = 1.0931 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,089,068 X 0.00214 = 21,571 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19566 – 21,571 = -2,005 or 2,005 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

19,566 ÷ 21,571 = 0.9028 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.