2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Boy – Under 1 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby boys in their first year of life in Illinois

1. 392 of 392 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 534 of 534 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 142 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 891 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby boys in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 392 of 66,988 baby boys in their first year of life living in Illinois died from All Causes.

392 ÷ 66,988 = 0.00585 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 10,301 deaths from All Causes among 1,291,059 baby boys in their first year of life living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

10,301 ÷ 1,291,059 = 0.00798 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

66,988 X 0.00798 = 534 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

392 – 534 = -142

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

392 ÷ 534 = 0.7325

This reveals 142 lives saved and is 73.25% of what we expected (a decrease of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,434 ÷ 524,181 = 0.00655 (5-yr CDR)

66,988(2022 pop) X 0.00655 = 439 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

392 – 439 = -47 or 47 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

392 ÷ 439 = 0.8919 or a decrease of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

591,169 X 0.00798 = 4,717 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3826 – 4,717 = -891 or 891 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,826 ÷ 4,717 = 0.8101 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.