2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Illinois

1. 1,100 of 1,100 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 78% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 614 of 614 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 486 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,083 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 78% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,100 of 435,271 men aged 30-34 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

1,100 ÷ 435,271 = 0.00253 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,410 deaths from All Causes among 6,671,159 men aged 30-34 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,410 ÷ 6,671,159 = 0.00141 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

435,271 X 0.00141 = 614 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,100 – 614 = 486

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,100 ÷ 614 = 1.7790

This reveals 486 lives lost and is 177.90% of what we expected (an increase of 78%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,925 ÷ 3,068,446 = 0.00193 (5-yr CDR)

435,271(2022 pop) X 0.00193 = 840 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,100 – 840 = 260 or 260 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,100 ÷ 840 = 1.3020 or an increase of 30%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,503,717 X 0.00141 = 4,942 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7025 – 4,942 = 2,083 or 2,083 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,025 ÷ 4,942 = 1.4114 or an increase of 41%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.