2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Kentucky

1. 1,394 of 1,394 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 35% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,029 of 1,029 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 365 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,068 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 35% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,394 of 148,282 women aged 55-59 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

1,394 ÷ 148,282 = 0.00940 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,233 deaths from All Causes among 2,051,761 women aged 55-59 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,233 ÷ 2,051,761 = 0.00694 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

148,282 X 0.00694 = 1,029 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,394 – 1,029 = 365

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,394 ÷ 1,029 = 1.3533

This reveals 365 lives lost and is 135.33% of what we expected (an increase of 35%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,379 ÷ 1,106,646 = 0.00848 (5-yr CDR)

148,282(2022 pop) X 0.00848 = 1,257 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,394 – 1,257 = 137 or 137 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,394 ÷ 1,257 = 1.1079 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,254,928 X 0.00694 = 8,705 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10773 – 8,705 = 2,068 or 2,068 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,773 ÷ 8,705 = 1.2357 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.