2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 85-89 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in British Columbia

1. 148 of 3,945 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.75% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 107% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 71 of 3,584 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 77 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 361 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 150 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,199 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of British Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 107% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 148 of 32,371 elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

148 ÷ 32,371 = 0.00457 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 604 deaths from Unknown Causes among 274,983 elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

604 ÷ 274,983 = 0.00220 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

32,371 X 0.00220 = 71 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

148 – 71 = 77

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

148 ÷ 71 = 2.0721

This reveals 77 lives lost and is 207.21% of what we expected (an increase of 107%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

530 ÷ 208,175 = 0.00255 (5-yr CDR)

32,371(2022 pop) X 0.00255 = 82 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

148 – 82 = 66 or 66 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

148 ÷ 82 = 1.7888 or an increase of 79%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

240,546 X 0.00220 = 528 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

678 – 528 = 150 or 150 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

678 ÷ 528 = 1.2774 or an increase of 28%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.