2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 85-89 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in British Columbia

1. 3,945 of 3,945 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,584 of 3,584 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 361 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,199 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,945 of 32,371 elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

3,945 ÷ 32,371 = 0.12187 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 30,448 deaths from All Causes among 274,983 elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

30,448 ÷ 274,983 = 0.11073 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

32,371 X 0.11073 = 3,584 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,945 – 3,584 = 361

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,945 ÷ 3,584 = 1.1005

This reveals 361 lives lost and is 110.05% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,491 ÷ 208,175 = 0.10324 (5-yr CDR)

32,371(2022 pop) X 0.10324 = 3,342 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,945 – 3,342 = 603 or 603 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,945 ÷ 3,342 = 1.1804 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

240,546 X 0.11073 = 26,635 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

25436 – 26,635 = -1,199 or 1,199 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

25,436 ÷ 26,635 = 0.9549 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.