2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Texas

1. 1,731 of 11,866 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 14.59% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,913 of 11,181 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 182 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 685 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,851 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,169 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,731 of 793,125 men aged 60-64 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,731 ÷ 793,125 = 0.00218 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,553 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,277,545 men aged 60-64 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,553 ÷ 7,277,545 = 0.00241 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

793,125 X 0.00241 = 1,913 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,731 – 1,913 = -182

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,731 ÷ 1,913 = 0.9011

This reveals 182 lives saved and is 90.11% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,626 ÷ 5,097,410 = 0.00208 (5-yr CDR)

793,125(2022 pop) X 0.00208 = 1,653 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,731 – 1,653 = 78 or 78 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,731 ÷ 1,653 = 1.0420 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,890,535 X 0.00241 = 14,208 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12357 – 14,208 = -1,851 or 1,851 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,357 ÷ 14,208 = 0.8662 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.