2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Texas

1. 1,678 of 14,103 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.90% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,955 of 13,351 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 277 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 752 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,736 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,857 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,678 of 651,545 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,678 ÷ 651,545 = 0.00258 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,513 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,503,121 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,513 ÷ 5,503,121 = 0.00300 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

651,545 X 0.00300 = 1,955 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,678 – 1,955 = -277

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,678 ÷ 1,955 = 0.8554

This reveals 277 lives saved and is 85.54% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,764 ÷ 4,073,453 = 0.00264 (5-yr CDR)

651,545(2022 pop) X 0.00264 = 1,722 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,678 – 1,722 = -44 or 44 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,678 ÷ 1,722 = 0.9709 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,724,998 X 0.00300 = 14,178 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12442 – 14,178 = -1,736 or 1,736 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,442 ÷ 14,178 = 0.8746 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.